OUR 2002 ACC PREVIEW
FLORIDA STATE
One thing you can count on this season, the only second place finish the Florida State Seminoles will contend for will be Fiesta Bowl runner-up in the BCS Championship game. With 17 returning starters, the return of 2000 starting wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Robert Morgan who both missed all of 2001 with injuries, plus one of the top recruiting classes in the nation loaded with no less than six Parade All-Americans, Bobby Bowden and company are poised to make their 6th trip to the “National Title” game in 10 years. "By no means is their dynasty over," said NC State head coach Chuck Amato, who's a former Florida State assistant. "They are still the one we're all chasing."
The Noles would like to improve on their return efforts from a year ago and with a couple of experienced sophomores handling the responsibilities will likely do so. Expect the biggest area of improvement however to be on the defensive side of the ball. A year ago the Noles were 5th in the league in scoring and total defense, 4th in rushing defense, 6th in passing defense and as already mentioned, last in the conference in sacks. With 8 starters and 30 lettermen returning with a bit of a chip on the their shoulder, the offense won’t be the only thing garnering headlines in the Florida panhandle. We predict the Noles will win it all.
FSU – 38 UVA - 17
Prediction: 8-0 ACC, 12-1 Overall, Fiesta Bowl
WAKE FOREST
There is no doubt that the success of the Maryland Terrapins and their new head coach Ralph Friedgen took the conference and the nation by storm last fall, but many believe the Terps underachieved in 2000 and entered 2001 with plenty of talent to be competitive. On the other hand, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, the youngest team in the NCAA last season, lost 18 starters from 2000 and new head coach and former Wahoo Jim Grobe brought in an entirely new staff. The Deacs went 6-5. There’s your surprise team of 2001. And here’s another surprise, they’ll be better in 2002 although their record may not. In our pregame preview last fall we predicted the 17-year losing streak against the Cavs might end. Unfortunately we were right and we think the Deacons may have Virginia’s number again this season.
Jim Caldwell did a nice job recruiting and redshirting his kids at Wake over the last several years and from a talent level standpoint, we do not feel it’s too outlandish to say that Wake can competed with every team in the ACC (except FSU) with their first 22. Depth is the big issue. As we stated early on, Wake could be better this season but not necessarily have a better record. With sure wins over Northern Illinois, Duke, and Navy, and we think back to back wins over the Heels, Hoos and East Carolina at home, the Deacs are already looking at a 500% season. But with swing games on the road at NC State, Purdue, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Maryland, we think a winning season may be a lot to ask. Last season Wake lost to Clemson, Tech, State and Maryland by an average of only 5.5 points per game and had scoring opportunities late in all four. When you consider that Wake won four road games in 2002 (ECU, Virginia, UNC, Duke) we will not be surprised to see them pick off a few of those road test again this season. If they hold serve at home, don’t be surprised with a couple of road upsets and a post season opportunity for the Demon Deacons.
Wake - 24 UVA - 21
Prediction: 3-5 ACC, 6-6 Overall
DUKE
I doubt any university in America has a wider gap between the fortunes of their Division 1-A football and basketball programs than Duke. Each year, Mike Krzyzewski's Blue Devils enter the season ranked in the top five with a focus on winning one game: the NCAA National Championship game. And just like the Duke basketball team, each year it seems Duke football enters the season focused on winning one game; maybe even two.
Entering the 2002 season on the heels of 23 straight losses, Duke fans might be thinking things couldn’t get any worse. Think again. With the announcement in June that Duke senior quarterback D. Bryant was ruled academically ineligible and would not play his final season of eligibility with the Blue Devil squad things indeed got worse for Duke head football coach Carl Franks.
Duke will continue to struggle this season but they have a lot of young potential and Blue Devil fans should see incremental improvement throughout the season. I especially like the move to bring Roof to Durham and believe he will have an immediate impact on the Duke defense. Dapolito has the potential to be an outstanding quarterback over time but will struggle this season. Duke will end their winless streak this season and if they can pull of a mild upset at Northwestern, could win 2 games. They are the youngest team in the ACC compounded by possessing the least talent and will find the road rough in the league again this fall. That said, the out of conference slate will produce a couple of wins for the Dookies.
UVA - 27 Duke - 9
Prediction: 0 – 8 ACC, 2 - 10 Overall
CLEMSON
In Tommy Bowden’s 2nd year at Clemson, his Tigers started the season 8-0, giving up a mere 14 points per game. Since then, the boys in orange and white have compiled an 8-7 record and have given up and average of 29.2 points per game. Last season must be classified as a disappointment and while some are picking the Tigers as high as second in the ACC, we think there is too much to replace on the offense and too many questions on the defense to place Clemson any higher than middle-of-the-pack in the conference.
The Tigers gave up more yardage in the last 6 games of the season (419 ypg) than they did in the first six (369 ypg) and lose three of their top 6 tacklers from 2001. Replacing a leading running back or even a talented quarterback like Danzler is something college football teams do all the time. But coupling those losses, especially the running threat that Dantzler provided, with four experienced offensive lineman, doesn’t lend itself to unbridled optimism. This is fewest returning starters on offense for a Clemson team since 1998, a year in which the Tigers average 120 ypg rushing and 185 ypg passing; their worst offensive performance in the last seven years. The schedule doesn’t help. With Georgia in Athens, South Carolina and a good Louisiana Tech team out of conference on the slate and conference road games against Florida State, the Hoos, and North Carolina, all are potential losses. Maryland, NC State and Georgia Tech all have the potential to win in Death Valley. A 4-4 mark in the league and 7-5 overall seems to be about right for this year’s Tigers.
UVA – 23 Clemson - 16
Prediction: 4 – 4 ACC, 7 - 5 Overall
NORTH CAROLINA
Entering the 2001 season UNC head coach John Bunting said of his alma mater "I think they lost an edge in the weight room, lost an edge in recruiting, lost an edge in the excitement to play this great game of football and what it takes," he said. "The game is a long game. ... You're going to make a mistake, but you can't let that get you down on the next play. You can't give in. I saw it sometimes in spring ball; they gave in if something didn't go right. It can't happen anymore."
Carolina is one of only three teams in the ACC to return its leading passer, rusher and receiver. Wake Forest and Virginia are the others. In addition, Carolina also returns three starting offensive linemen for the first time since 1999. Darian Durant passed for 1,843 yards and 17 touchdowns – both UNC freshman records – in 2001. Andre’Williams led the team in rushing with 520 yards and four touchdowns. Williams is joined in the backfield by two other returnees, Willie Parker (131 yards in the Peach Bowl) and Jacque Lewis, who played as a freshman in 2001. Sam Aiken, who led UNC with 789 yards receiving, anchors a receiving corps that returns seven of its top nine pass catchers.
The Tar Heels will have plenty of firepower on offense but we believe the defense will struggle. Carolina faces what some long-time observers are calling the most challenging home schedule in school history this season. UNC finished in the bottom third of the league in kickoff returns, net punting and 3rd down conversions, all of which will need to improve to take pressure of the young defenders. The Tar Heels are like most of the ACC team with the exception of Florida State and Duke, a middle of the pack team with lots of questions. As for the game against the Hoos, until the Heels prove they win at Scott Stadium, we have to give the edge to the Cavs.
UVA – 27 UNC – 21
Prediction: 5-3 ACC, 7-5 Overall GEORGIA TECH
New Tech football coach Chan Gailey brings considerable experience to the helm of Georgia Tech’s solid football program. What Gailey found upon arriving beneath the Coca Cola logo is a program that has tremendous experience and depth at many positions and an abundance of young talent to launch his tenure. Gailey’s staff will return 15 starters from a 2001 team that many felt underachieved based on preseason expectations. Only FSU (53) outpaces the Yellow Jackets in the number of returning lettermen, as the Yellow Jackets are tied for second with Clemson with 46.
So much of Tech’s success will be the result of three factors. First, how quickly Suggs or Bilbo grasp the offense and understand what the staff is seeking from them. Secondly, can the Yellow Jackets establish a running game to take pressure off of the young and inexperience quarterbacks? And finally, can Tenuta’s coaching finally allow the Yellow Jackets defense to play up to their potential?
There is no reason not to expect an 8-win season from the ‘Wreck. If the Yellow Jackets can steal a couple of tough road wins, Tenuta’s defense performs at a high level, and the quarterbacks play up to their pedigree, a Maryland type season is not out of the question.
The Hoos must travel into Bobby Dodd, a place they have not won since Bill Lewis was running the Yellow Jackets program. Winning in Hotlanta is not impossible for the 2002 Hoos, but it will be quite a challenge. Look for Tech to continue their winning ways against the Cavs this season.
GT – 35 UVA - 19
Prediction: 5-3 ACC, 8-4 Overall, Tangerine Bowl
NORTH CAROLINA STATE
Call us stubborn, but we haven’t bought a ticket for the NC State LuvFest 2002. In fact, we didn’t buy a ticket for the 2001 extravaganza either. That year the Packs’ victories came over teams with a combined record of 24-55 (303% winning percentage). State essentially dominated 3 teams, UNC, Wake and SMU and struggled in every other game. The Pack racked up a ton of passing yardage against 8 opponents who ranked in the bottom 22 of the NCAA pass defense rankings last year. They were losing in 6 of their 8 wins in the 4th quarter last year and needed overtime to win 2 of their games, and required last minute drives in 4 of their games to either force overtime or win.
Consider that over Chuck Amato’s first two seasons in Raleigh, 11 of State’s 15 wins have come against teams without a winning record. Of the Pack’s 9 losses, 8 came at the hands of teams with 500% records or better. In our opinion, State is more of a paper tiger than pack of wolves. Unless the prey is weak opposition.
All that said, Phillip Rivers is special and as long as he’s at the controls, North Carolina State will be competitive. And while we have pointed out that the Pack has been less than impressive against teams with winning records, their four losses last season were only by an average of 7.5 points per game and they did spank the Noles in Tallahassee. They do need to replace their leading rusher and receiver (Ray Robinson) from a year ago and all world linebacker Levar Fisher on the defense, both significant contributors a year ago. But they do return 6 starters on offense and 6 starters on a defense that gave up only 21.4 ppg; the Pack’s lowest total in nine years. The biggest question mark other than who will carry the ball may be who will block for them. State losses 3 starters from their offensive front that combined for 35 of 36 starts last season. How quickly and cohesively that unit gels will go along way in determing the fate of the Carolina season.
The Wolfpack haven’t defeated the Cavs in Charlottesville since 1994. With the youth on Virginia’s squad, State would seem to have a slight edge. But the game is in Charlottesville and late enough in the year that the 12-14 freshmen that will have likely been on the field for the Cavs throughout the season will no longer be freshmen. This game may well be the difference in a winning or losing season for the Cavs and like the Hoos in this pivotal swing game for 2002.
UVA – 27 NCS - 21
Prediction: 3-5 ACC, 7-6 Overall
MARYLAND
Over the last 10 years, Maryland’s futility in the ACC was only surpassed by Duke's. From 1991-2000 Maryland compiled a 37-73 record, the 2nd worst overall record in the league behind Duke’s 29-81-1 mark. Enter former Maryland alum Ralph Friedgen. He promised change, put together and exceptional coaching staff, and sold his players on the concept that they could be winners. For the National Coach of the Year, offensive coordinator Charlie Taafe and defensive coordinator Gary Blackney; mission accomplished. Now in their second seasons at Maryland, the trio comprises one of the most experienced triumvirates in college football. With their 85 years of combined, full-time experience at the college and/or pro levels, Friedgen, Taaffe and Blackney are the fifth-most experienced trio in Division I-A.
It came as no surprise that Friedgen’s presence was felt immediately on the Maryland offense. From 1996-1998, the Terp offense averaged just 16.6 ppg. Those numbers improved in 1999 and 2000 to 24.5 but jumped 9.9 points to 34.4 under the guidance of the “Fridge”. Maryland finished 1st in the conference and 16th in the nation in total offense, first in scoring offense (12 nationally) and 2nd in the league (11 nationally) in rushing offense in 2001.
Not only did the Terps make great strides in the ACC offensive rankings; they also excelled on the defensive side of the ball. Maryland finished 2001 leading the conference in scoring defense (18 nationally) and rushing defense (9th nationally). Maryland finished 2nd in the league in total defense to Carolina. A year ago, the Maryland defense gave up 22.2 ppg, their best production in four years.
Maryland still has the talent to be among the ACC’s best after Florida State. “According to ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., Maryland is far too well-coached not to compete for the second or third spot in the ACC.” With our prediction that teams 2-8 in the league will fall between 5-3 and 3-5, we agree with Kiper and pick the Terps 3rd in a three-way tie with Clemson and UVA. Though on the road, the Terps will handle the Hoos in Charlottesville unless we see significant improvement in the run defense by year’s end.
UM - 27 UVA – 19
Prediction: 4-4 ACC, 8-5 Overall
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