Dubious Distinctions: Penn State suffered through their first back-to-back losing seasons in 36 years under legendary coach Joe Paterno.

Stellar Stats: Since starting Big Ten Conference play in 1993, Penn State is 87-32 (73%) overall, narrowly trailing Ohio State and Michigan for the best record in the Big Ten. Penn State has won 35 of 41 non-conference games overall since starting Big Ten play in 1993. The Cavaliers delivered one of those six defeats last year in their 20-14 come from behind win in Charlottesville. In that game, Virginia’s defense, headed by former Penn State linebackers coach Al Golden, shut down the Lions offense in the second half, shutting out the Lions while intercepting four passes and returning a fumble 92 yards for a touchdown.

OVERVIEW

The Cavs return to the field after a well deserved and much needed bye week. That’s the good news. The bad news is the “pups” get to travel to Happy Valley to face a much improved Penn State offense and a top-notch Lion defense. The Penn State defense continued its dominance, holding a prolific Illinois team, which has averaged 460 yards per game this year, to only 292 yards of total offense.

Penn State returns 29 lettermen and 16 starters from last year’s 5-6 squad. Seven starters and 12 lettermen returned on offense; 15 letterwinners including seven starters, are back on defense as well as State’s punter and kicker return. Seven additional returnees earned starts in 2001. Reflecting on 2001 Coach Joe Paterno said, “To me it is always a building process. You are looking at what you have to get done. You don’t have the kind of luxury to sit back and try to figure out why did this happen or this happen there? There comes a time when you put that behind you and try to learn from it. You regroup and try to get your football team better. I am not trying to be cute.”

OFFENSE

Coming off a 5-7 campaign in 2000, there were plenty of opportunities for improvement for the Penn State offense. After a 0-4 start in 2001, it appeared not many things had. But entering the game with the Cavs last season Penn State was in the midst of 5-1 run. The catalyst for the mid season improvement was the running game. As we suggested in our preview last year the success of the Lions may well hinge on the ability of the offensive line to produce a ground game. In their first four games (0-4) of last season PSU average and NCAA worst 40.8 yards per game rushing. In the six games prior to their loss in Charlottesville, Penn State had rushed for an average of 165 yard per game. Again this season, the ability to generate a ground game has been critical to PSU’s success.

Prior to Penn State’s loss to Ohio State the offensive numbers had improved dramatically during the team’s 5-2 start in 2002 when compared to last year’s 3-4 start. The Lions were averaging more than 85 more yards rushing per game (196.4 ypg to 110.3 ypg) and over one yard more per carry (5.0 ypc to 3.3 ypc). Most impressively, the Lions have improved their total offensive yardage per game by almost 100 yards per game (440.0 ypg to 341.7 ypg), nearly doubling their 2001 average point output (36.9 ppg to 19.4 ppg).

Two years ago injuries and attrition forced the Lions to use eight different offensive line combinations in the first nine games of the season and that was a major contributor to the Nittany Lions having a losing season. Continuity and improved play on the offensive line was a huge factor in the Lions’ progress over the second half of the 2001 season and has continued into this years campaign. The same unit (Gus Felder, Greg Ransom, Joe Iorio, Tyler Lenda and Chris McKelvy) started the last nine games of 2001. As PSU opened the 2002 season the Lions’ starting line-up on the offensive line included four seniors - three who were part of that group, while the other had starting experience.

With 26 career starts (11 last year) Gus Felder (6-5 321 Sr.) returns at left tackle teaming up with the player college football analyst Phil Steele rated the 13th best offensive lineman coming out of high school back in 2000, left guard E.Z. Smith (6-3 287 Fr). Smith was redshirted last year and has started 6 games this season. The lone true senior among the line group is center Joe Iorio (6-3 297 Sr.). Like Felder, Iorio has 26 starts throughout his career including all 11 games last fall and all 9 this season. Also starting every game last season as well as this year and returning at right guard is Tyler Lenda (6-3 293 Sr.). After only two starts, right tackle Matt Schmitt (6-4 301 Sr.) lost last season to a bout with mono. Schmitt started five games for the Lions in 2000 and all nine games this season. Overall the Penn State line is big (averaging 6-3 and 300 pounds) and has solid experience with a collective 94 starts among them. The veteran offensive line has been critical to the Lions’ success. The unit has allowed only 11 sacks, with Iowa and Michigan the only teams to post more than one sack.

After last year's tailback-by-committee experiment, Larry Johnson (6-2 222 Sr.) is simply the man. During the 2000 season, Johnson delivered Penn State’s longest run, pass reception and kickoff return and he continued to provide big plays throughout last year on offense and special teams. The multi-talented Doak Walker Award candidate may be positioning himself for a late Heisman run in a very open race especially considering his record shattering day this past Saturday against the Illini. Johnson broke his own school rushing record with 279 yards on a career-high 31 carries. This marks the second time in three weeks that Johnson has set a new school record. Just two weeks ago, Johnson rushed for 257 yards against Northwestern. Saturday was Johnson's 5th 100-yard game of the season and his second 200-yard game of the year. A three-year letterman and Penn State’s leading rusher last season, Johnson leads the team again entering the game next Saturday with 1221 yards on 173 carries for an unheard of 7.1 yards per carry. Johnson is averaging 135.7 yards per game and is second on the team in receiving garnering 308 yards on 35 receptions. CNN/SI.com selected Johnson for the nation’s top performance by a running back after the Northwestern game and he leads the Big Ten and is second nationally in all-purpose yardage at 189.8 ypg. On ESPN’s Gameday program on Oct. 12, analyst Lee Corso called Johnson, “the nation’s top all-around running back.”

Three times last season quarterback Zack Mills (6-2, 220 So.) came off the bench to lead Penn to come from behind victories. Mills led the Lions to the game winning score with: 22 left at Northwestern and rallied PSU from a 27-9 deficit to beat Ohio State, 29-27 as well as orchestrating a 42-37 win over Michigan State. Mills was named to the 2002 Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award Watch list and is coming off an inaugural campaign in which he broke four school freshman passing and total offense records and the Penn State mark for total offense in a game. This is clearly his team now and Mills continues to improve with each game, effectively leading the diverse Penn State offense and emerging as one of the nation’s top quarterbacks. Coming into the Virginia game Mills has completed 146 of 253 passes for 1892 yards and an 12-6 touchdown to interception ratio.

Penn State’s triple Johnson threat of running back Larry Johnson and wideouts Bryant Johnson (6-2 201 Sr.) and Tony Johnson (5-11, 197, Jr.) is a major reason for PSU’s improving offense. Bryant came into the Penn State program with a ton of promise but apparently needed to do some growing up. It appears he has. After a promising freshman season, Johnson was hampered during the 2000 season with academic trouble and a case of the “dropsy’s”. It appears the All-Big Ten candidate has matured and has been the Nittany Lions’ most productive receiver over the last two years and has emerged to join a select group of the Big Ten’s premier wideouts. Last year Johnson led the team with 51 catches for 866 yards (17.0), three touchdowns and recorded five 100-yard receiving games. Bryant again this season is leading the Lions with 39 receptions for 711 and 3 touchdowns. Playing in every game, with 7 starts, Tony is third on the team with 27 receptions for 430 yards and tied for the lead with three receiving touchdowns. His 15.9 yard per catch average is second on the squad and Tony has established himself as a reliable target with game-breaking capabilities early in the season. After losing stud tight end John Gilmore to the NFL, the Lions lost another projected starter when R.J. Luke, who was acquitted on aggravated assault charges earlier this year decided to transfer to Western Illinois to get "a fresh start." His replacement, Casey Williams (5-11 237 Jr.) is having a solid season with 17 catches for 187 yards.

DEFENSE

The Penn State defense continues to make great progress since their overtime loss to Iowa, not allowing Ohio State an offensive touchdown on the heels’ of the Nittany Lions’ 49-0 blanking of Northwestern the week prior. The defense limited the Ohio State offense to just six points and 253 yards, well below their season averages of 35.6 points and 426.1 yards entering the game. The Lion defense held a prolific Illinois team, which has averaged 460 yards per game this year, to only 292 yards of total offense in their win Saturday.

The line is loaded with the studs and has become one of the better defensive lines in college football. The defensive front is lead by preseason All American and a likely future 1st round NFL draft pick, tackle Jimmy Kennedy (6-5 316 Sr.). The “Grizzly Bear,” an Honorable Mention All Big Ten player from 2000 has 62 tackles, 13 tackles for loss and 4 sacks this year. Kennedy is a load and will give the Cavalier offensive line a substantial challenge. Jimmy was named to the 2002 Playboy All-America Football Team and was a preseason second team All-American by Football News, Lindy’s and Athlon college football preview magazines. A first team All-Big Ten selection last year, the standout fifth-year senior is a candidate for the Lombardi Award, Bronko Nagurski Trophy and Outland Trophy. Michael Haynes (6-3 268 Sr.) will man one defensive end position. According to my Penn State “insiders” no one is bigger, tougher and more chiseled than Michael Haynes. ESPN College Football analyst Mel Kipper says of Haynes, “…the player who could become a feared sack artist is Haynes.” In 2000 he tied for the team lead in sacks (6) even though he only started two games. Last year he finished with 7 sacks and 41 tackles. “Haynes combines functional strength with superior quickness and closing speed,” said Kiper. Michael is living up to the hype with 60 tackles on the season, 16 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. At the other end will likely be John Bronson (6-3 265 So). Bronson saw action in the first eight games last fall before sustaining a shoulder injury that sidelined him for the final three contests. For the season, he’s made 34 tackles, including two sacks. The other tackle is Anthony “Spice” Adams (6-0 285 Sr.). Adams tied for the team lead in tackles for loss with 7 last year and has added 8.5 more to his career total this year along with 40 tackles.

Penn State has long been known for producing superior linebackers such as Jack Ham, Andre Collins and LaVar Arrington. But entering spring practice, coach Paterno said that he was still waiting to see who would emerge. With the loss of linebacker Shamar Finney to graduation, the Lions lost not only their second leading tackler from last fall but also tremendous leadership.

The Nittany Lions weren’t without their candidates to fill that void and one who has is outside linebacker LaMar Stewart (6-1 224 So.). Stewart was among the 67 preliminary candidates for the 2002 Butkus Award, presented annually to the nation's top collegiate linebacker. Stewart played in 10 games last season as a true freshman and recorded 32 tackles and was named to The Sporting News’ Big Ten All-Freshman Team for his efforts. This season, Stewart is fifth on the team with 56 tackles. Gino Capone (6-1 238 Jr.) returns from a season in which he played well as a reserve, and starter Derek Wake (6-3 232 So) will be back after missing most of last year with a knee injury. Capone played in every game last year and has experience at outside and middle linebacker. Gino made 16 tackles a year ago and is currently second on the team with 81 stops. A gifted athlete, Wake demonstrated the ability to make plays as a true freshman and his loss was a big blow to the defense last year. His presence has clearly been felt on PSU’s outstanding defense this season, as Wake is fourth on the team with 7 tackles for loss while adding 40 tackles.

The secondary lost just one starter in right cornerback Bruce Branch and his understudy from last season, Rich Gardner (5-11 182 Jr.), has moved into the starting lineup. Gardner played in every game last fall and recorded 24 tackles. This season Gardner has contributed 44 tackles and 7 pass breakups in 8 starts. Left cornerback Bryan Scott (6-2, 218, Sr.) was among the 36 preseason candidates for the Jim Thorpe Award, presented to the nation’s top defensive back. In his third season as a starter, Scott started all 11 games at cornerback last year and was third on the team with 82 tackles. Bryan leads the team this fall in pass breakups and is second with 3 interceptions in addition to his 53 tackles. Chris Harrell (6-2 202 So.) made an immediate impression on the coaching staff last season, earning playing time in every game on defense and special teams. He was one of four true freshmen to play in 2001. Harrell played cornerback in his rookie season, but during the spring was shifted to safety where he is currently State’s 6th leading tackler. The hard-hitting Shawn Mayer (6-0 196 Sr.), having overcome a torn ACL and back surgery during his career played in all 11 games, starting the last 10 at free safety for the Lions last year. As he did a season ago, Shawn leads the team in tackles with 108, including 3.5 tackles for loss. His ability to be around the ball and make plays continues again this season as he leads the Lions with 4 interceptions.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Penn State’s special teams provided numerous opportunities for the offense and scored five touchdowns last season. The Lions blocked six kicks (3 FG, 2 punts, 1 PAT), with two resulting in touchdowns. Both specialist, kicker Robbie Gould (6-0 161 So.) and punter David Royer (6-3 206 Sr.) return for the Nittany Lions this season. Royer took over the punting duties last year and did a solid job, improving his average by more than two yards per kick. This season as a regular, Royer has punted 38 times for a 40.9 yard average, an improvement of almost three yards from his 2001 mark. An accurate punter, he has landed the ball inside the opposition's 20-yard line 13 times. Gould is second on the team in scoring with 54 points, going 11-15 on field goal attempts and 27-of-30 on PAT attempts.

The Nittany Lions entered 2002 looking for someone new to return punts, as Bruce Branch handled 22 of 25 returns last year. Bryant Johnson won the job and has provided a solid effort with his 10.6 return average. Larry Johnson posted an impressive 26.7-yard average on his 17 kickoff returns last year but has fallen off a bit this season with a 19.9 yards per return average.

Junior David Kimball has proven to be a valuable weapon for the Penn State defense thus far as the strong-legged kicker has booted 35 of 47 kickoffs into the end zone for touchbacks on the year. Only six times has an opponent started outside the 20-yard line following a kickoff. He posted 15 touchbacks last season on 37 kickoffs.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Much like Virginia the Nittany Lions have responded well to halftime adjustments by the coaching staff, out-scoring the opposition 84-32 in the third quarter and 144-92 in the second half and overtime. The Lions out-scored Nebraska 20-0 in the third stanza and Louisiana Tech, 28-7. The Lions out-scored Iowa, 22-0, in the fourth quarter to force overtime and out-scored Northwestern, 28-0 in the second period.

Penn State’s offensive success in the first eight games this season has been greatly assisted by its ability to convert in the clutch. The Lions, who finished last in the Big Ten in 2001 in third down conversions at 37.1 percent, are second in the Conference with a 44.2 percent (53 of 121) conversion rate in 2002. Penn State has converted on 24 of 39 tries (61.5 %) on third downs of four yards or less and 22 of 65 tries (33.8 %) of five yards or more.

The Lions are not accustomed to losing and after back to back seasons doing so, Joe Paterno appears to have righted the ship this fall. The Nittany Lions returned 29 lettermen and 16 starters from last year's squad that finished the season winning five of their last seven. Offensively Penn State entered the season with two spots in question; tight end and fullback. The rest of the starting positions were solid and have proven so throughout the year. The biggest concern all season has been the lack of playable depth. If Mills or Larry Johnson were to go down with an injury, it could be another year in “unhappy” valley. That hasn’t happened and Penn State has seen no appreciable loss of playing time by any of their starters. The defense also returned seven starters and is without question the strength of this team. Opponents are averaging just 18.7 ppg and State is scoring 31.4 points a game. Of the Lions twelve games, eight are played in front of 107,000 plus fans at Beaver Stadium including the November 9th date with the Cavs. The Lions are 5-1 at home and two of their losses came on the road at Michigan and against 4th ranked Ohio State. Virginia knocked the Lions out of a bowl game last year and I doubt will get a very friendly reception when they visit University Park, PA. I look for Virginia to struggle in this one but I think they’ll keep it close. Upset maybe, but I like Penn State to win. This is one prediction I hope is wrong.

PSU - 23 UVA - 16

Greg Waters is the co-host and producer of the syndicated University of Virginia sports radio call-in show CavTalk. The program originates from the studios of AM 950 WXGI in Richmond, Virginia and can be heard from 7:00 – 9:00 PM EST every Wednesday evening over the CavTalk Radio Network. The program can also be heard via the World Wide Web at www.thesabre.com.